Kids and Health Care: A Booming Supply of Pediatricians
Occasionally, parents will hear horror stories about how changes in U.S. health care are discouraging doctors from focusing on pediatrics and children's health. Doctors around the U.S. do have a lot to complain about today -- including stagnant or lower incomes and rocketing malpractice insurance costs -- but there's little evidence that these trends are affecting pediatrics particularly.
In fact, the evidence that does exist suggests there will be more pediatricians in the coming years. You might find them forming groups to better manage their patients, control costs and handle claims.
A March 2004 study in the medical journal Pediatrics predicted that the number of pediatricians in the U.S. would increase by almost 60 percent during the next 20 years, while the number of children would increase by less than 10 percent.
The researchers used the current number of working pediatricians in the U.S. and the child population in 2000 as a baseline. They then created a statistical model that included several factors that may influence the number of pediatricians in the future.
These factors included:
- current supply of pediatricians;
- age and gender of new pediatricians entering the workforce;
- new pediatricians from other countries who trained in the U.S.;
- the U.S. population;
- deaths of and retirement ages for pediatricians; and
- the number of children who may see a primary care doctor other than a pediatrician.
The results predict that by 2020 there will be one pediatrician for every 1,400 children in the U.S., compared to the current level of one pediatrician for every 2,040 children. At first blush, this sounds like a boon for kids -- but the trend really reflects the growing specialization in the medical profession. The cost-control mechanisms of managed care health plans makes many aspiring doctors move toward specialized fields. Instead of working for an HMO, they can specialize in pediatrics and form a corporation with other pediatricians.
